Has Twitter’s Epic Fail Begun?

A friend and business associate asked me what I thought of Michael Schutzler’s recent post #twitter bullshit math? If you don’t have time to read it, here’s the abridged version: once the novelty wears off, Twitter will be nothing more than a cool way to follow celebrities.
He asserts that amassing a high number of followers is often worthless. About the silly “rule” that you must follow anyone who follows you out of courtesy, he writes:
Of course that’s just nonsense. Nobody I have ever met can actually read more than a few dozen active twitterer’s daily feeds. I saw one activetwitterer with 14,000 followers and 14,000 people she followed. Come on. Really? You can read 14,000 people’s posts? Of course not. Nor can you read the posts of 5,000 or even 1000 people. I cannot find the data to prove my point, but I am willing to bet there are millions of people with at least 1,000 followers and of those, most are junk followers.
While his analysis of the follow/follower relationship sounds logical, I see nothing wrong with a business following you just to get followed. For example, I just got an email from Twitter telling me that Active.com is now following me. Here are their follow/follower stats:
1751 tweets
Following 20909 people
This is how a business like Active.com gets my attention. They’re legitimate, as I’ve used them to register for sporting events. Of course they’re not reading their tweets from almost 21,000 people, and why should I care? I’ll take a look at their tweet history and if it looks good, I’ll follow them.
I also don’t agree with his conclusion that all uses of Twitter will fade away except for celebrity tweets. Twitter is used by so many in different way that it’s easy for one user to conclude that the part of the elephant he’s touching is all there is to it. Here are some examples of Twitter uses that he leaves out:
• Local small businesses tweeting about bargains and special events.
• News organizations, both local and special interest, tweeting links to breaking stories.
• Bloggers you want to follow but don’t because an RSS reader is too much trouble to set up, too rigid and too time-consuming to scan. A tweet gives you a link to their new posts.
• Conference attendees providing real-time updates
• Reports from those unfortunate enough to witness political or natural disasters
Point is, Twitter is so fundamental in its utility, so universal, that people and organizations are using it in a great variety of ways.
I was all ready to conclude with this sentence: “Nope, as I’ve said all along, Twitter is something fundamentally different and it will continue to grow because of that difference.”
Unfortunately, I ran into a reality check here: http://mashable.com/2009/10/13/facebook-twitter-growth-stop/.
Twitter isn’t growing any more. Whether this is a temporary plateau not, who knows? It may be the beginning of Twitter’s maturity. In either case, I remain convinced of its unique value for individuals and organizations and I’m staying aboard the bandwagon. For now.
